Fast Conflict Onset Forecasting with Automatic Identification System Data

Forecasting the onset of conflict at a fine-grained temporal level has important implications for early-warning systems and can provide timely information to policymakers, humanitarian organisations, and peacekeeping actors. Typical conflict prediction methods rely on variables such as political instability, economic conditions, population characteristics, or historical conflict patterns. However, this data is often relatively coarse in … Read more

Regression under Interference: Maximum Likelihood Approaches

Project for MSc. in Statistics and Data Science The iglm package in R provides a unified statistical framework for modeling individual responses and social network structures simultaneously in connected populations. In real-world social and economic systems, individual behaviors and relationship ties co-depend on each other, meaning classical regression models that assume independent observations yield biased … Read more

Regression under Interference: Bayesian Approaches

Project for MSc. in Statistics and Data Science The iglm package in R provides a unified statistical framework for modeling individual responses and social network structures simultaneously in connected populations. In real-world social and economic systems, individual behaviors and relationship ties co-depend on each other, meaning classical regression models that assume independent observations yield biased … Read more

Regression under Interference: Generalized Outcomes

Project for MSc. in Statistics and Data Science The iglm package in R provides a unified statistical framework for modeling individual responses and social network structures simultaneously in connected populations. In real-world social and economic systems, individual behaviors and relationship ties are co-dependent, meaning that classical regression models assuming independent observations yield biased results. By … Read more

Regression under Interference: Missing Data

Project for MSc. in Statistics and Data Science The iglm package in R provides a unified statistical framework for modeling individual responses and social network structures simultaneously in connected populations. In real-world social and economic systems, individual behaviors and relationship ties co-depend on each other, meaning classical regression models that assume independent observations yield biased … Read more

Regression under Interference: Dynamic Networks

Project for MSc. in Statistics and Data Science The iglm package in R provides a unified statistical framework for modeling individual responses and social network structures simultaneously in connected populations. In real-world social and economic systems, individual behaviors and relationship ties co-depend on each other, meaning classical regression models that assume independent observations yield biased … Read more

Regression under Interference: Bipartite Netwprls

Project for MSc. in Statistics and Data Science The iglm package in R provides a unified statistical framework for modeling individual responses and social network structures simultaneously in connected populations. In real-world social and economic systems, individual behaviors and relationship ties are co-dependent, meaning classical regression models that assume independent observations yield biased results. Modeling … Read more